Without A Vaccine, Researchers Say, Herd Immunity May Never Be Achieved

As the coronavirus continues to spread rapidly throughout the U.S. and beyond, many are wondering: How on earth will this end? In an interview televised this week, President Trump reiterated his belief that sooner or later the virus will burn itself out. "I will be right eventually," the president told Fox News host Chris Wallace. "It's going to disappear, and I'll be right."

But scientists are increasingly of the view that this virus will not disappear. In interviews and correspondence with more than a dozen researchers around the world, NPR found that the vast majority believes the virus will persist at some level for a long time in places like the U.S. and Europe.

And until there is an effective vaccine in widespread use, levels of immunity will never be high enough to achieve what's called herd immunity, these researchers say. That's the tipping point at which the disease begins to burn itself out because so many people are immune that it can't continue to spread.

As the coronavirus continues to spread rapidly throughout the U.S. and beyond, many are wondering: How on earth will this end? In an interview televised this week, President Trump reiterated his belief that sooner or later the virus will burn itself out. "I will be right eventually," the president told Fox News host Chris Wallace. "It's going to disappear, and I'll be right."

But scientists are increasingly of the view that this virus will not disappear. In interviews and correspondence with more than a dozen researchers around the world, NPR found that the vast majority believes the virus will persist at some level for a long time in places like the U.S. and Europe.

And until there is an effective vaccine in widespread use, levels of immunity will never be high enough to achieve what's called herd immunity, these researchers say. That's the tipping point at which the disease begins to burn itself out because so many people are immune that it can't continue to spread.

These scientists' view that the virus will persist is based on growing evidence that immunity may not be as straightforward as first assumed and that the virus is spreading relatively slowly, while continuing to sicken and kill. A vaccine could still prevent the illness or reduce its severity, but it's likely even that won't wipe COVID-19 from the globe.

"I think it's going to be with us probably forever at this point," says Devi Sridhar, a professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh. "It's going to be with us, and it's how we decide to live with it."...