Will Europe's second wave of Covid-19 cases mean a second huge death toll?

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Thu, 2020-09-24 10:07 — mike kraft

Will Europe's second wave mean a second huge death toll? At first glance, the outlook doesn't seem too grim. While reported cases are reaching record highs as Europe endures a "second wave," deaths are still well below their peak in April. But experts warn the signs point to more tragedy ahead this winter. Emma Reynolds, CNN CNN

London (CNN)At first glance, the outlook doesn't seem too grim. While reported coronavirus cases are reaching record highs as Europe endures a "second wave," deaths are still well below their peak in April.

But experts warn the signs point to more tragedy ahead this winter.

Europe's hospitals are now better equipped for treating Covid-19. Measures such as social distancing and mask-wearing have become the norm and the latest spread of infection has been primarily among younger people, who are less likely to die if they contract the virus.

Yet colder weather is beginning to set in and the flu season is approaching. The infection is spreading to older populations, and there are signs that people are growing tired of adhering to the restrictions.

"Obviously we don't really have any ways of preventing Covid from going around, other than the lockdowns or social distancing measures and so on; we don't yet have a vaccine," Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the UK's University of Southampton, told CNN.

While he does not expect deaths to reach the levels seen in the first wave, Head added: "We'll see a lot of spread of cases, we will see a lot of hospitalizations, and a lot of burden on our health service.

"There will also be a big death toll."

Coronavirus cases reported across Europe reached a record high of 52,418 over a rolling seven-day average on Tuesday, according to CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. But there were just 556 new deaths reported, compared with a height of 4,134 daily fatalities (from 31,852 cases) from the seven-day average on April 10.

That compares with a seven-day average of 44,547 cases and 722 deaths on Tuesday in North America, which has a population of 366 million compared with Europe's 750 million people.

Hospitals are now better able to diagnose and treat the virus, meaning mortality rates for ICU patients in some European countries have dropped from about 50% during the spring to roughly 20%, Head estimates.

But Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta, Romania and Spain have all been seeing sustained death rate increases. ...

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